Fed’s Soft Landing

21 months after the Fed embarked on the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades, it looks increasingly likely that the optimal outcome under the circumstances – bringing down inflation without inducing a recession and causing a significant increase in unemployment – can be achieved.

With CPI inflation down to 3.1% in November, the unemployment rate still hovering below 4% and U.S. GDP on track to grow 2.5% this year, the often-quoted ‘soft landing’ is in sight.

According to the FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate at the end of 2024 is now 4.6% meaning that members of the are currently expecting three 0.25 percentage point rate cuts for next year, followed by further cuts throughout 2025 and 2026.


Looking at the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), FOMC members expect inflation to drop from 2.8% in Q4 2023 to 2.4%  in Q4 2024, 2.1% in Q4 2025 and return to its target level of 2% by the end of 2026.



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